Among those voicing their support for Harris, 46% said they would definitely vote for her, with another 7% saying they were inclined, but could change their mind. For Trump, 27% said they were definitely voting for him, with 5% inclined but not committed.
It’s little surprise that Harris is leading in deep-blue Washington. In 2020, Joe Biden took 58% of the vote over Trump’s 39%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the state 53% to Trump’s 37%. One needs to look all the way back to Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election to find a Republican presidential candidate winning Washington.
The latest Cascade PBS/Elway poll was conducted statewide Sept. 3-6 with 403 registered voters. About 23% participated on landlines; 28% by cell phone calls; and 49% participated online after a text message invitation.
It has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level, which means if the same survey was conducted 100 times, the results would be within five percentage points at least 95 times.
Michael MacDonald of Ocean Shores is one of those Republican voters swimming against Washington’s blue wave. The 78-year-old is now retired from the financial services industry, but spent much of his career in California, so he’s used to being a Republican among a Democratic majority.
“It doesn’t bother me,” MacDonald said in a follow-up call after taking the poll. “I have friends on both sides of the aisle. It makes for lively discussions.”
MacDonald plans to vote for Trump, but said it would’ve been nice to have different candidates to choose from. He made his decision on the presidential election before the first debate and watching the matchup between Trump and Harris didn’t change his mind, though he said the vice president performed better than he’d expected.
“I believe that Trump is better prepared to handle the economy,” he explained. “I’ve had the chance to see what the current administration has done for past three and a half years and haven’t been impressed.”
Not every Washington Republican is willing to support Trump, however. Linda Dukelow is a lifelong Republican voter who lives in Pasco and is mostly retired, though she and her husband still manage some rental properties. The 82-year-old said the two of them are reluctantly voting for Harris because they can’t vote for Trump.
“He’s such a liar, such a cheat, such a poor example of a human being,” said Dukelow. “As my mother would say, I wouldn’t vote for him for dog catcher.”
That doesn’t mean she’s ready to give up on every Republican on the ballot. Dukelow plans to vote for Dave Reichert for governor.
“I’m not happy with how the state of Washington has been going for a long time,” she explained. “We need a change. … I think Reichert thinks a lot like I do. I could never vote for [Jay] Inslee and [Bob] Ferguson’s even worse.”
The stakes are high for Washingtonians this election: 45% of poll respondents said this was the most important election of their lifetime and 42% said it is more important than a typical election.
Still, people have a glimmer of positivity about the presidential election, with 37% describing themselves as feeling either optimistic or hopeful. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Emerald State, though; another 27% described themselves as anxious or worried about the election.
Pollster Stuart Elway says these voter outlook numbers are the most positive he’s seen since December 2020.
Democrats are feeling more hopeful than Republicans, with 47% of those who intend to vote for Democrats saying they feel positive versus 26% of those who intend to vote for Republicans. Dems were also more likely to feel anxious about 2024, with 35% saying they’re worried about the election versus 16% of Republicans.
Dukelow is one of those worried Republicans. She said Trump scares her and her husband.
“If he gets his way, he wants to be president for life … and he seems to get away with just about everything he tries,” Dukelow said. “We’re old enough that it doesn’t matter, but I worry about grandkids and great-grandkids.”
Tammie Lillehaug thinks 2024 will be the most important election of her lifetime. The 56-year-old Burien Democrat said the overturn of Roe v. Wade is top of mind for her, and that abortion rights feel inextricably linked to the outcome of this presidential race.
“My whole lifetime, that has been a pretty solid right for a woman,” Lillehaug said. “Never did I think 10 years ago that’d be in question. For me and the stories I’ve heard in other states where that’s been taken away, that’s just frightening.”
Though worried about how November will play out, Lillehaug said she thinks things are generally trending better nationally, statewide and locally.
“I’ve not necessarily seen things get better, but problems are being more recognized and talked about at this point,” said Lillehaug. “I have hope for that at least. We’re not shoving problems under the rug. I think we did that a long time with crime and addiction.”
She’s not alone. The Cascade PBS/Elway voter outlook index found that people think things are heading in a better direction now than they did even a year ago.
In the most recent poll, 48% of respondents said they expect things to get better, versus 38% who expect things to get worse in the next year. In December 2023, only 34% said they expected things to get better compared to 53% who said they expected things to get worse.
The numbers were similar at the state and local level, with 46% responding they think things will get better in Washington state and 56% saying things will get better in their community.
Once again, Democrats are feeling more hopeful than Republicans, with 67% of self-identified Democrats thinking things looked better for the country. That’s compared to 52% of self-identified Republicans who said things were looking worse for the country.
The new Cascade PBS/Elway poll also asked voters about Sen. Maria Cantwell’s re-election campaign against Republican challenger Dr. Raul Garcia. Like Harris, Cantwell is on track for an easy victory over the Republican, with 55% of respondents saying they’d vote for her compared to 33% who plan to vote for Garcia. The poll revealed a similar breakdown when people were asked if they plan to vote for a Democrat or a Republican to represent them in the U.S. House.
This article was updated to correct a typo in the poll result numbers.
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