What Alexis Rinck’s Council primary win says about Seattle politics

Rinck wrapped up the five-way primary with 50.2% of the vote, nearly 12 points ahead of Woo’s 38.4%.  

Rinck works on state budget and policy issues for the University of Washington and used to be a policy analyst for the King County Regional Homelessness Authority. She is running squarely in the left lane: in favor of new progressive taxes to address the budget deficit, investments in affordable housing, violence interruption programs and police alternatives, and new renter and worker protections.  

Woo is a community activist in the Chinatown-International District and co-owner of the Louisa Hotel apartments. In 2023, she ran unsuccessfully to unseat Councilmember Tammy Morales for Seattle’s District 2 seat. In January, the Council appointed Woo to temporarily fill the Position 8 seat vacated by Teresa Mosqueda, who was elected to the King County Council. Whoever wins this November will finish the final 13 months of Mosqueda’s term and would have to run again next year to stay in office.  

Woo’s campaign then and now focuses on public safety and public disorder. She wants to continue investing in police hiring, expand community policing, build more affordable housing and shelter space, invest in treatment options and support small businesses. She opposes raising taxes to address the deficit without first finding cuts in the existing budget.  

That a progressive won by a wide margin in Seattle against a more conservative-leaning candidate isn’t new territory. But Rinck’s primary win comes less than a year after a slate of five moderate-to-conservative Democrats swept into office on the same pro-police, pro-business platform that Woo is running on. Many political commenters saw last November’s election as a sign that Seattleites were fed up with a decade of progressive policy experimentation and ready for a more moderate approach.  

So are Seattle voters already mounting a backlash to the backlash, expressing their dissatisfaction with the new Council majority? (Progressives think so.) Or is that the wrong lesson to draw from these results? (Yes, say moderates.)  

“To have a challenger in a crowded primary against an incumbent end with more than 50% is wild,” said Crystal Fincher, a progressive political consultant and host of the Hacks and Wonks podcast. “I think it’s a reaction to a misalignment of values of the residents of Seattle and actions of the Council.” 

Fincher points out that some of the Council’s first major actions were attempts to scale back a newly implemented minimum wage for gig-company delivery drivers and freeze the full phase-in of Seattle’s nearly decade-old minimum wage law. None of the Councilmembers ran on a platform of cutting wages for Seattle workers, and Fincher thinks they have misunderstood voters.  

Similarly, the Council, looking at how to cut the existing budget, has largely opposed the idea of raising taxes in the face of a $250 million deficit, even though new business taxes poll well among Seattle voters. 

“I think the Council majority significantly misread their mandate and is paying for it,” said Fincher.  

Though some Councilmembers had decisive victories in November — Cathy Moore won by nearly 30% and Rob Saka by 9% — others had thin margins. Councilmember Maritza Rivera won by less than 1% and Councilmember Bob Kettle by less than 2%.  

Sandeep Kaushik is a political consultant and co-host of the Seattle Nice podcast where he typically takes the centrist position on issues. He thinks progressives are too quick to write the current Council’s political obituary.  

“This result should certainly be a wakeup call for Tanya Woo,” he said. “But I’m seeing a lot of overreading of these results from left progressives who seem to be all but measuring the drapes in the corner office for Alexis Rinck. I think that’s really premature.” 

Though he doesn’t think this primary signals a return to progressive ideology among a majority of Seattle voters, Kaushik does think voters might be expressing some frustration with the slow pace of action from the newly elected Council. The legislators have passed only a few substantive bills this year. 

More important, Kaushik argues that despite conventional wisdom that low-turnout-election voters are more conservative, that doesn’t necessarily hold true in Seattle, at least in low-turnout, odd-year municipal primaries. Seattle had 43.6% turnout this August and 36.4% for last year’s municipal election primary.  

“The most engaged voters [in Seattle] tend to lean more left and therefore turn out disproportionately in Seattle primaries,” he explained.  

For example, Kaushik said, in the 2021 mayoral primary, Lorena Gonzales and Bruce Harrell were nearly tied in the crowded primary, but Harrell won by more than 17% in the general. Similarly, when Woo ran against Morales in 2023, she was down by 10% in the primary, but lost the general by only 1.5%.  

Of course, many factors determine an election’s outcome, but Kaushik said that in recent years Seattle’s general elections for municipal office have had about 50%-55% turnout, and those less-frequent voters tend to support more centrist candidates.  

Granted, this is a special Council election in an even year with the president and Washington governor on the ballot, so turnout will very likely top 80% in November. Kaushik concedes the centrist turn might not hold this year, but he said, “I think there are reasons to be cautious about these results in the primary.” 

Both Fincher and Kaushik agree Rinck’s campaign is also a clear factor in her success.  

“You don’t see a primary challenger finish above 50% if people are just voting against something. Alexis is really connecting with her message in all areas of the city,” said Fincher.  

Kaushik similarly said Rinck’s message — wanting to bring people together to solve problems and unify the city — is more moderate and seems to be clicking. And while Woo currently holds office, she was appointed to the position and hasn’t been there very long. Kaushik said, “Woo really needs to define herself and establish her identity as a candidate between now and November.” 

Money could also be a factor in the general election. Woo benefited from more than $178,000 in independent expenditures for her and against Morales in 2023. In total, PACs spent more than $1 million in 2023, most of which came from big business. The Washington Realtors PAC spent $60,000 on behalf of Woo in the 2024 primary, but it remains to be seen if Seattle-area business interests spend the same way in the general election as they did last year.  

Asked if she was surprised by her commanding lead in the primary, Rinck credited her campaign team’s work reaching voters across the city and success building a base among unions, Democratic leaders and progressive organizations, which resulted in a broad swath of endorsements.   

“Our team is honored and humbled by the results,” Rinck said in an interview. “We started this campaign with a simple but powerful idea that the Seattle City Council should work for all of us, not just the corporations and ultra-wealthy. And the people of Seattle have spoken.” 

In an emailed statement, the Woo campaign said the Councilmember expressed optimism and determination following the primary results.  

“We’ve built tremendous momentum, and the results show we have support from all corners of the city,” Woo was quoted in the email. “I’m deeply inspired by the support we’ve received and the conversations we’ve had with residents throughout the city. There’s still work to be done, and I’m committed to earning every vote as we move toward November.”