The mood of Washington voters is gloomy.
Most respondents to a recent Cascade PBS/Elway poll said they were worried about the future, didn’t feel represented by their state government, and had low opinions of both Gov. Bob Ferguson and the Democratic-led Legislature.
But among the most surprising results for pollster Stuart Elway was the voter outlook index, which reached its second-lowest score ever. The index measures how well respondents think the next year will go, and Elway’s been measuring it for 33 years.
For only the second time in the poll’s history, respondents anticipated things will be worse in all four areas they were asked about: worse in the United States, in Washington state, in their communities, and for them and their households.
“People are in a pretty pessimistic mood,” Elway said. “I can understand people in Western Washington particularly being unhappy with the way things are going nationally, but it seems to have washed into their outlook about their personal lives and their community and everything.”
The Cascade PBS/Elway poll surveyed 403 registered voters across the state between July 7 and July 11 using a mix of landline, cell phone and online interviews. Of those surveyed, 43% consider themselves Democratic, 19% Republican and 38% Independent.
The poll has a 95% confidence level, meaning that if the survey were conducted 100 times, the results would be within five percentage points of the same findings at least 95 times.
The voter outlook index has dropped more than two points since September of last year, according to the poll.
Typically, the outlook for a person’s household is always the highest, and the country’s is always the lowest, Elway said. But this year, every outlook was low.
Outlooks for respondents’ households, communities and the state hit all-time lows. Only 41% of poll respondents thought their households’ situation would improve, 33% were optimistic about their communities, and 24% had a positive outlook on the state.
A larger share of voters said conditions were looking worse for their households than better. Republicans, Eastern Washington voters, and people with incomes between $50,000 and $99,000 were the only groups whose majorities said their situation was looking better at home.
Emily Manke, 52, a Democrat from Bellingham, said she is worried about all of the federal funding cuts coming down the pipeline, particularly to food assistance and health care programs.
“There’s just no way all of our lives aren’t going to get worse,” she said.
Laurel Demkovich
Manke works for a nonprofit organization that receives federal and state funding, so she is also worried for her and her family’s future if she loses her job, she said.
The outlook for the state was particularly dark. Seventy percent of people said things were looking worse for the state. It’s the lowest rating for any of the components of the poll since 1992.
About 61% of Democrats said things were looking worse for the state. Eighty-one percent of Independents who typically vote Democratic agreed. Seventy-five percent of Republicans and 83% of people who tend to vote Republican also said things are worsening at the state level.
Disconnected from government
Voters’ low outlook comes at a time when they’re also feeling particularly disconnected from their representatives in government. Only 42% of voters said they were at least somewhat well-represented by the state government this year.
Only 66% of Democrats said they felt represented – a percentage that surprised Elway, considering the party has controlled much of the state for decades. Among Independents, 52% of those who tend to vote Democratic and 37% of true Independents said they felt represented in state government. For Republicans, meanwhile, 88% did not feel well-represented, and 90% of Independents who tend to vote Republicans also felt unrepresented.
“Folks are just not feeling very well-connected to their government right now,” Elway said.
Roy Senter, 64, from Pullman, said he does not feel that state government represents the interests of small rural communities like his. Senter tends to vote Republican and said state government often focuses too much on issues localized in the Puget Sound region – sometimes to the detriment of the state’s other communities.
“They place the burden of things they need on us,” Senter said.
Elway said voters’ feelings of disconnection weren’t necessarily new. The number of voters who feel well-represented in state government has decreased significantly over the past 40 years. In 1985, 65% of voters felt represented. That number increased slightly to 67% in 2000 but dropped to 47% by 2022.
A lifelong Washingtonian, Manke said she believes the state’s culture has always been more progressive than the rest of the country. But she does not feel those views are currently reflected in state government, particularly at the governor’s office.
Ferguson received one of the lowest first-six-months job ratings of any Washington governor in more than 20 years, with only 32% of voters saying they approved of his performance so far. The Legislature also received low marks, with just 24% of respondents saying they approved of the job state lawmakers are doing.
Elway said that many of the state’s fundamentals, like unemployment rates, are at reasonable levels right now. Still, voters seem to be anticipating that everything will be worse, he said.
“There’s a dread that is coloring these results,” he said.
