Washington’s latest carbon auction raised $237.2 million, bringing 2024’s cap-and-invest revenue up to $561.7 million with one more quarterly auction to go.
Carbon-emitting corporations, including oil companies, bid every three months on state allowances for their pollution emissions. In 2023, the first year of the new program, quarterly auctions brought in about $2 billion.
During 2023, quarterly auction prices ranged from $48.50 for roughly one metric ton of carbon in the first quarter to $63.03 in the third. Those prices were significantly higher than had been expected when the program was designed, and were blamed for adding 21 to 50 cents per gallon to Washington’s traditionally high gas prices.
But both auction prices and related fuel prices have gone down in 2024.
The 2024 first-quarter auction price was $25.76 per allowance, which raised $135.5 million for the state budget. The second-quarter price was $29.92 per allowance, raising roughly $189 million. The third-quarter auction, conducted Sept. 4, ended up with a $29.88 price per allowance with 7,939,271 allowances sold, the Washington Department of Ecology announced Wednesday.
Reasons for the lower 2024 auction prices are unknown, but one theory is that bidders are unwilling to spend money on a program that could disappear at the end of 2024, after voters decide on a state initiative to repeal the cap-and-invest program. Others believe Washington’s carbon market is stabilizing and that bidders are becoming more savvy about the way they approach the quarterly auctions.
While larger auction prices have been linked to higher gasoline prices, too many extra factors cloud any precise correlations. Numerous economic, geographic and other factors affect the rise and fall of Washington’s prices at the pump. For decades, Washington’s gasoline prices have been among the highest in the nation.
On Wednesday, Washington’s average price for regular gas was $4.16 per gallon compared to a national average of $3.25, according to AAA. Oregon has economic and geographic factors somewhat similar to Washington’s, except for a cap-and-invest program. Its gasoline sold at an average of $3.76 per gallon this week.
“Despite efforts to repeal this landmark climate law, the [cap-and-invest program] continues to bring real, tangible relief to our communities as we respond to the impacts of climate change. ... While the repeal effort may have placed slight downward pressure on the price of pollution permits during the auction bidding process, more notably, prices have remained consistent with California and Quebec’s price trajectories,” said a joint press release from Climate Solutions, Washington Conservation and The Nature Conservancy.
Washington is talking with California and Quebec to become a three-party alliance, which is expected to decrease and stabilize auction prices.